The Thereization of Second Life

Yes, it's official now, the Lindens have acquired the two leading shopping sites for SL content.

And now Linden Lab is squarely positioned above the content-creation and content-sale stream, and able to centrally clear on content -- just like the smaller virtual world There, which has a system where you send in your content to a company committee that vets your item, then permits you to sell it.

Oh, Linden Lab won't be like that, you say.

Well, watch. Yes, in the months ahead as they merge in the formerly-independent shopping sites, it may not appear as a centralized clearing-house at first.

But watch what happens to, oh, adult items. Or weapons -- weapons should be watched closely. The old Lindens never saw a script they didn't like, and never banned Copybot or heavy weapons of mass destruction as such, or their use, only banned their *misuse*. Will their greed to get the commission of their sale supercede their awareness that letting these things into the pipeline costs them in G-team staff time and resident vexation?

Watch what happens to the formerly independent currency exchange, run by the formerly independent Anshe Chung who was a bastion of counterweight to the Lab, who in her glory days could turn her back on Governor Linden to try to affect policy.

Watch what happens to the formerly independent forums, which have been an important place to discuss issues like island fraud that the Lindens shut out of their forums as being potential "defamation of individuals or groups" (a new AR category they've become rather liberal with using lately -- I see it cropping up frequently in the police blotter, buried on the Linden back pages, where there never used to be such a thing, ever).

Watch what happens to people accused -- rightly or wrongly, we may never know -- of content theft, and watch their content get locked lickedy-split on a centralized content sales manager called XStSL.

Now, here's where it will be interesting for some of us -- watch what happens to the real estate listings. Will the Lindens remove their laggy, confusing and bot-infested inworld land-for-sale interface? Will they move it all to the web?  Will they slowly but surely begin to GOM the real-estate service sector, too?

It's one thing to identify this move as practical for the Lab in grabbing at revenue streams that look more promising that the land business -- as I said, content is light, land is heavy. My father used to explain to me why he wasn't in the brick business, but was in the Xerox toner business, and how trucks and bricks were heavy to move but toners for copiers and telecopiers (as we called faxes in the 1970s) were more pragmatic because they'd be used to move paper across telephone lines instead of using those tubes or messengers or trucks.

Land is heavy because to make it work, you have to keep "adding one more," and as Mark McCahill explains expertly about the Lindens' architectural and database problems, Cobalt will look more like the answer very soon for some enterprises.

Read the fine print on the plans, too, and see that just like the Sheep stuck their own people's properties in the viewer, now LL has that option with those who sell through X Street. Remember  how we heard that FlipperPAY had put his lovely wife Jennyfur's store higher in search? Well, sell with XStSL if you want to show up, otherwise you are dog meat.

Some might engage in conjecture that store and mall buys and rentals will dip as SL fine-tunes these shopping sites. People thought that when they first appeared, and I'm not sure in fact that people won't continue to go to malls. People like going to malls because they can dress up to do so, bring friends, see and be seen, go on the poses and see how things look, check out how stuff looks 3-D, etc. It doesn't necessarily replace the mall trip -- but inevitably, it *will* replace it for *some* stores and there will be the inevitable dislocation that happens every time Linden Lab moves its big foot and steps on our world.

XStSL (now we see what that weird "GL" was placeholding!) feels a lot like Soviet Bread Store No. 47 to me right now. I just don't think state stores *work*. It may not be evident right away, but I'm not sure that it will retain its energy and life. I'm wondering right off the bat if a dummy amateur like me will be able to go  on -- for much longer -- simply uploading whatever I feel like inflicting on the buying public for whatever price. At what point am I going to start meeting resistance? At one point will the positioning of Linden Lab as a central authority over this content stream begin to pinch?

Comments

[Prokofy Neva]

I think my very last post on the old SL forums in June 2005, about monopolies over services within SL like shopping sites, photos, and rentals, is really interesting to read today in the Department of I-Told-You-So:

http://forums.secondlife.com/showthread.php?t=50002&highlight=Four%27s+Company

GIGAS, don't forget, is Adam Zaius, who is preparing OpenSim for eventual GOMing by LL so that they can offer separate grids to enterprise customers as Mark McCahill is predicting, buried in an editorial about performance hitting a wall.

Slexchange.com -- well, see, I predicted that.

Nexcom long since failed, its maker turned to griefing on the grid, but it's not over til its over.

Cristiano's "all your snapshots belong to us" -- is he next on the GOM block?

[Darien Caldwell]

I really didn't want to believe it was true. It's quite a blow for freedom of choice and Free Marketplace.

[Prokofy Neva]

Prad makes the point that we are also clipped on the advertising fees and upload fees and search places checkoff fees, too.

http://www.pradprathivi.com/latest/lindenlab-buy-xstreetsl-and-onrez

[ina]

I really wonder how LL will deal with all that content infringement shizzle on XSL (er, or are they called, SLX, again, now).

[ina]

on second thought, prok, shouldn't you be on the list, too?

[Prokofy Neva]

List of what? blogs? Well, read what I predicted in 2005.

[cube]

the "dream"lol ends.

This is clearly just part of LL being pressured by its bankers to sell its technology/company since they cant go public for the obvious and non obvious reasons.

They first need to end all content sales - they first needed and did remove all the "land"- server resellers-

Now they can easily remove all IP violations content---and the porno content that needs to be dealt with;P.

this will protect the "new buyers" from YOUTUBE like lawsuits over IP violations, and new gov officials holding hearings about perverts online, as the teen grid- becomes the "educational grid" as LL sells the merged SL-teen maingrid tech off to an educational/ hippie vetted socially correct" foundation---- I see mitch k. making lots of calls now--lol

Fox or any real media company has no use for any content they dont monetize by owning --AKA the death of myspace for indie content music makers...etc etc, so all those designer shoes and star wars codpieces have to go bye bye now!. But I think Fox will pass now...they can now pick up another failed 3d mmo tech for less and with less headaches...Lively is there for the taking. Simpsons 3D chat all ready to go!Thye already license the property for games to big pockests like EA..so dont expect FOX to actually pay for any MMOs...

Sl as the metaverse?- a 3d internet?..a new paradigms for communications media?--lol. they served up tyhe koolaid, and you all drank and resold it gladly.
wello shirkys...lol

And the opensims geeks who plan on ending capitalism?;) well they will just tech argue themselves into a decade of irrlevance as the vrml geeks did a decade before. Theres no "metaverse" coming from them either.

I guess the best thing that will happen is that all the SL birthed metaverse-whatevers will now go away and back to starbucks jobs and futurism classes at the new school.

Like cyclons, this has happened before and will all happen again.

And Dusan cant be blaimed.;) he just spent 2 years trying to be a metapundit something-- so hes just protecting his new gig.;) "metas gotta eat"-- to pull in the AICN crowds forums chant!

Wheres the cyber lawyer you fought with all the time on all this?..oh yeah now working 9-5 at pillsbury... His writings look really funny in light of what SL has truly become:)

well prok, k--- at least maybe youll spend more time with the family now.;)that cant be a bad thing.:)

Well, hopefully all your blogs past "social/civic and political" wonderings won't be forgotten in 5-10 years when the next "metaverse" is in bubble hype mode and reinvention by stanford juniors. But i think the epoch of the linden religion is finally over. And other monks will be known for writing the "new" words of "new" gods then.:)

Soon the Lindens SL will be just another e-learning tool for chris whittle:) sponsored by the food and drug industry;)

Will anyone remember any of this when virtual worlds are truly a mass media for humanity?

Obama was right-- childish things, and no knowledge of history. And there you have the Linden years... and its reality.

It ends not unlike the Bush Presidency - not sounding so "sure" anymore of its divine rightousness and power.

I can see the Linden exit helicopters approaching..cant you?;)

Its been a long day. childish ways ending.:) will other's will begin?

definately!
and thanks. i now use "mangina" in my weekly lexicon.
c3

[Melissa Yeuxdoux]

Don't worry, cube. In the old days, only the wealthy could self-publish, and thus only crackpots with money could do something like the fellow who had a book printed proclaiming he'd squared the circle. He sent copies to colleges and universities where they now molder, a curio for those going through the stacks at random.

Now there are free blogs and Google and the Wayback Machine... so the paranoid, abusive rants here will, I'm sure, be preserved for posterity.

[melponeme_k]

I said a few months ago that LL had nothing to offer a buyer because the most successful bits were resident owned. They weren't a game company like Blizzard which controlled everything in their world. We are in the midst of a major overhaul in company vision.

Well now, they will be able to control the flow of goods. Will there be better deals for the big players, how much co-opting will go on there?

The next step will be taking over the more successful island owners in some way. Especially since they can now squeeze with their xl listings store.

If they control everything that makes their world run better, residents (or I guess now...**subscribers**) will need to play with them or leave.

[Prokofy Neva]

We stew in our own SL soup so much that we often don't keep track of other industry developments, but of course, LL does. And they feel the hot breath of other worlds on their neck.

Here's some info I just got from a press release from the expo that was formerly called Virtual Worlds, and now is called Engage!

"Home, available exclusively on the PlayStation 3, entered open beta in December 2008 and generated $1 million in virtual goods sales in less than 30 days of operation. Already game industry heavyweight Electronic Arts has signaled its intent to build out a large Home presence. Come find out how Sony's game-changing 3D play blends virtual worlds and games at Engage! on March 10-11, 2009."

So Sony could make in 30 days what SL makes in a day, "In 2008, Residents of Second Life purchased and sold more than
USD $360 million of virtual goods and services" -- but Sony is Sony, and could scale.

[Anna Gulaev]

In my predictions for 2009 I said Onrez would fold and Xstreet would begin to decline.

Nanner :)

I also said another third-party site would gain traction. Unless LL intends to outlaw third-party shopping, it seems certain people will want a non-Linden alternative, and someone will want to provide it.

[Ann Otoole]

Let's dump the oh noes life is ending chatter and consider this:
LL will begin taking a rake on all transaction. That is the MSN Transactions division business model.

Microsoft has the talent and money to create SLv2 (and called whatever who cares) in a very short amount of time. Furthermore Microsoft can put the 3D viewer on every windows OS desktop on the planet.

The conversion of the asset system into something reliable would not take too long. Less time than the time required to convert and dedupe all that ASCII padded with more xml ASCII sitting on a file server into a real database rofl. Assuming they even wanted to keep the existing content.

The only thing missing from this equation is UGC and former LL employees. They will get dumped in less than a year because they are not needed. Maybe a couple of really smart ones will get a position elsewhere in Microsoft. But this acquisition model has been repeated over and over. And there are already former LL people working for Microsoft so all the dirty little secrets are already known to Microsoft. (uh ohes!)

So all those LL staffers rubbing hands together imagining becoming a Microsoft millionaire need to understand it ain't happening lol. Not only that but the overnight Microsoft millionaire days ended when the compensation plan was changed in the mid 1990's anyway.

I can see Corey being hired on as a new director or VP in MSN to handle this project.

[Sigmund Leominster]

"In my predictions for 2009 I said Onrez would fold and Xstreet would begin to decline."

So, wrong on both counts - and only three weeks into 2009. That's a spectacular miss I'd say. Unless, of course, you do the usual prognosticator's U-turn and "redefine" the words "fold" and "decline" to mean "get bought out."

I believe one of the stated aims of Linden Lab is to achieve growth, and acquisition is a standard, almost mundane, method of doing this. Hell, I've bought two companies in the past two years and I'm no Warren Buffet, but it sure does help the bottom line.

I don't see anything going on here other than a company taking advantage of a market that is open for growth. LL buys two similar businesses, creates "synergies," (and for "synergies" read "redundancies") and ends up with one smaller but more efficient company. That, my friends, is called Capitalism, and it's a good thing. The current economic downturn is due not to the failure of Capitalism per se but to stupid people who failed to use it correctly. (A whole new discussion - but not now).

The way out of the current slump is for weaker companies to be bought out stronger ones; for managers to focus on squeezing every drop of productivity out of their workforce as they can; and for those with capital available to them to seize the day.

Of course, for some folks, whatever Linden Lab does will always be construed as (a) wrong, (b) stupid, (c) evil, or (d) all of the above. But there's no conspiracy here, it's just business-as-usual in the world of corporate mergers and acquisitions.

Oh, and my prediction for 2009? Everyone who makes those stupid predictions for 2009 in a vainglorious attempt to seem smart or prescient will, of course, be right. Armed with the twin tools of Revisionism and Reinterpretation, how can they fail?

[Dale Innis]

"But watch what happens to, oh, adult items. Or weapons -- weapons should be watched closely."

I'm wondering what you expect to happen to weapons and the other categories that you think we should watch carefully? I can't tell whether you're saying "just watch, the Lindens will start to ban them to make the Grid squeaky-clean for their Corporate overlords", or "just watch, the Lindens will continue selling weapons even though it leads to griefing because they greedily want their cut of the transactions".

I haven't been a big user of the web-hosted SL sales sites myself (shopping inworld is just too much fun), but I am curious about what concrete changes people are hoping for or fearing...

[Prokofy Neva]

This Linden's comment about LL definitely keeping the commission fee as they take over XSt is funny due to the Linden's name - appropriate for the occasion.

Originally Posted by Colossus Linden
Hey FlameRose,

We will be keeping the commission and most other features of Xstreet. We will also look at additional ways to help merchants sell their goods and services. I apologize that you'll be losing a free service, but I've seen evidence that Xstreet supplies well more value to the merchants than they pay back in fees. And those fees allow us to provide that service and value. For us to succeed, our merchants have to succeed, so we'll do what we can to provide you new services to help you in that endeavor at reasonable rates to support those services.

Thanks for the input
--Colossus

A lot of the chatter on sluniverse.com is about how the Lindens will put SHOP or even SEARCH from XSt into the viewer.

Now that's a game-changer -- and one that definitely mitigates against new people, democracy, and free enterprise.

Because only those established enough to get organized and visible on XSt will be see in search then. Some are touting this as a way of getting rid of bots and traffic, but of course, it merely shifts the tacky gimmick load to another point in the system, where people already use techniques like constantly reposting their wares in different colours to show up on the front page.

I see another interesting caper in the works here. The Lindens might just keep the "quick cashout" of XSt on its exchange in place, as an incentive for merchants. Everyone else will have to wait 5-7 business days to cash out, but if you have proceeds from sales on XSt, you will get a quicker cashout.

If you don't make and sell stuff, I guess you could deposit your money in the XSt ATM and cashout that way, but I wonder if that option will continue.

One of the things that is so terribly fake about this discussion is all these geeky male non-shoppers weighing in claiming you can't shop because the search is shit. They forget how they use Google, which is to ues it repeatedly, use it with various unconscious correctives, like ignoring gamed side ads on key words, and so on. In SL, they suddenly become purists. They want to type the word "fun" in the box and have it teleport them to their ideal widget.

The Search All currently contains an enormous potpourri of stuff -- listed with its coordinates. Every single thing set to sale on every sim shows up (this was long ago planned when they revamped the search and even led to protests because they were putting every single thing in search whether people decided whether they wanted it to be there or no, if it had a for-sale checkoff. There were certain bugs, i.e. products stuck in the for-sale mode you couldn't undo.

All you would have to do -- all! -- to make this huge grabbag of junk more coherent is to make the name and coordinates a hypertext link, or a teleportable link within the SL system. So that you could find the little black dress and then teleport directly right on top of it, or at least with a vector line, so as not to hunt in vain through an entire mall trying to find it (can be very frustrating).

That's the direction I would have though the Lindens could have gone in. But it's very dbase intensive.

[Ric Mollor]

-----Quoting Prokofy---------
All you would have to do -- all! -- to make this huge grabbag of junk more coherent is to make the name and coordinates a hypertext link, or a teleportable link within the SL system. So that you could find the little black dress and then teleport directly right on top of it, or at least with a vector line, so as not to hunt in vain through an entire mall trying to find it (can be very frustrating).
------------------------

For what it's worth SLBrowser does that now. Their results are accessible via slbrowser.com or an in world hud.

Where possible it will actually TP the user right to the selected item. If the TP is forced to a landing point the beacon will be on the item.

[Catherine Cotton]

Usually I am the outspoken minority on issues with LL. This time however I maybe I am again lol. This might be a good thing. A wider audience for goods and services; I don't see that as a bad thing. Integrating such a system in to the existing search however would suck ass. LL better be prepared to get beat up in the forums,blogs,and webs if that is their intention. PPL are already crying foul.

This is a done deal so I will not waste my time fighting LL on this.